No one can fully understand the risks of the forex market. No matter what forex day trading system you choose the risks are always there. The only difference between a new trader and an old, seasoned forex trader is their way of dealing with the unknown. But even seasoned traders still have losing trades. Also the old winning trader has the confidence of his past winsnings, new traders do not have that, rather they are drawn into the trading game by an urgency to make some money soon, just for the sake of covering some immediate living costs.
Traders, this is not for you! If you are thinking about easy, effortless money then this is not for you at all! The forex markets do give away money, but only to those who are patient enough to wait for it, and to those who have the patience to sit down and learn from trading mentors.
It is much like going to a casino, if you are looking for quick fun just to kill some time, then it's fine, there's no need to do any homework. But if you are serious about it, and want to go and 'break' the casino, then you have to have the passion and turn this desire into a profession, a life long profession. Beating that casino comes down to planning, learning from some older players, and then either developing special skills, specific to the game you wish to play, or devising a scam that can fool players and the casino alike. Both of these are possible!
That's how I have looked at the forex markets too, even though it's not possible to fool and scam the forex markets it's still perfectly possible to learn from old traders! Now, in regard to the probability of winning and monthly return figures, I have found that in forex day trading, it can be up to 40% a month. It is possible to make up to 40% a month day trading currencies. Using nothing but your imagination combined with the know-how of seasoned traders, ones that are willing to mentor you and help your trading!
These mentors' techniques are rather simple and easy to follow, but you will be amazed how many obstacles they will help you with their forex trading trading system. Once done with the first stage of learning you can be more risk-taking than they are, after all they have to play it safe for the sake of educating you. It is kind of like a car driving instructor that does not go over 25Mph, this does not mean he can not teach you how to drive at 200Mph!